YS Private gathered before the spring salary settlement
On Tuesday, unions in YS Privat met for a conference. The agenda included the wage settlement for the spring, the Holden IV committee report, and how the interaction between the employee and employer sides can be strengthened in the future.
There is great excitement surrounding this year's wage settlement. The past year has been characterized by a challenging economic situation for both households and businesses in Norway. Continued high price levels, a weak krone, and higher interest rates shape expectations for this year's settlement.
YS Privat leader Anneli Nyberg does not hide the fact that expectations for this year's settlement are high among members.
– We have been through several years of uncertainty and price increases. Certain groups have been left behind. It is clear that all these things together will increase expectations for the settlement, says Nyberg.
Can be demanding
Head of Negotiations in ParatTurid Svendsen believes the settlement will be demanding.
– It could be a very demanding settlement. Many members have high expectations after several years of real wage decline. There has also been a lot of talk about a contractual pension, so we will see what that will mean for the settlement, says Svendsen.
In addition to economic developments, there are major upheavals in the way tasks are solved. Svendsen highlights the role of artificial intelligence in the way businesses and employees work in the future.
– I think we need to talk about the challenges in Norwegian working life in the wake of artificial intelligence. We will experience a speed of change that we may not have seen in many years. This places great demands on employees and businesses to adapt, says Svendsen.
Do you think the Frontfag model is worth it?
Chief Economist at YS, Merete Onshus, has served on the Holden Committee that in December 2023 submitted a report on the model for wage formation in Norway. The committee concluded that the front-line model should be continued as the basis for Norwegian wage formation. The committee also made the same conclusion in 2013.
– By letting industry set the wage growth for the other groups, we ensure that the growth is in line with what competitive industries can tolerate over time. We want to avoid a wage-price spiral and we want to keep unemployment low, says Onshus.
A key conclusion from the Frontfagsmodelutvalget is that the existing model has contributed to high value creation, low unemployment and a sufficiently competitive cost structure for Norway. This is despite the fact that many working groups have not seen real wage growth in recent years.
The economy is cooling down
The pandemic was a hard sell for the Norwegian economy, as it was for many other countries. Between 1,5 and 2,0 percent per year is normal economic growth. At the moment, growth is below normal levels and Statistics Norway reported on Tuesday that the three-month growth rate is only around 0,1 percent. In November 2023, the economy shrank by 0,2 percent. However, competitiveness is good, says Onshus. This is due to the weak krone exchange rate.
– The improvement in our competitiveness is driven by the weakening of the krone exchange rate. First, energy and raw material prices increased, then it has spread broadly throughout the economy. Now price inflation is on the decline, because energy prices in particular have fallen. The weak krone still means that it will take longer for us to bring inflation down, says Onshus.
– Wage growth is good
– Throughout 2023, wage growth has increased and ended at around 5,5 percent, which is about the same as price inflation ended at. In 2024, forecasting groups believe in weak growth in gross domestic product. It is assumed that unemployment will rise and that price inflation will fall from the current level, says Onshus.
The question is whether you will get more in your wallet in 2024. That is a major uncertainty factor, says Onshus.
– We do not know how restrictive economic policy will be in 2024. It could affect the housing market, it could affect households, and businesses. In addition, there are geopolitical tensions that could affect energy prices, for example, and which are difficult to take into account in forecasts, says Onshus.
Calls for clearer voices in political debate
Regional Director of NHO Viken and Oslo, Vegard Einan, talked in his presentation about the possibilities of collaboration with employee organizations, academia, and the political system in general.
– Our overall responsibility is both competence, transportation and business development for the companies. We see that NHO companies in 2022 were short of just under 40,000 employees. 2,600 of these were apprentices. The companies are therefore struggling to obtain the right competence, and surveys we have conducted show that 2 out of 3 NHO companies state that they have problems meeting their competence needs, says Einan.
At the same time, Einan misses the fact that labor organizations like YS take a greater place in the political debate.
– Especially when there are major differences of opinion between the associations, it is important to speak out. There are examples where the debate becomes too one-sided, especially when you know that there is good cooperation between the employee side and the employer side in the private sector, says Einan.